UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs. Vera Staff Predictions

Saturday, August 4 at 8:00 p.m. ET/5:00 p.m. PT
Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, USA

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Brandon Vera (Light Heavyweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Brandon Vera always does a good job of convincing people he has had an outstanding training camp and will return to his former glory coming into his past few fights, and he did it again this time around, but I’m not convinced. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a still a top-5 light heavyweight in my books and very isn’t even in the top-15. Never say never in MMA, but Rua’s superior skill matched with his agressive style equals a bad night for “The Truth”. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via KO – R1

Jon Gerow: There’s no way Mauricio loses this fight. If for some reason Vera starts to out strike him, “Shogun” will take it to the mat where his finishing ability is just as dangerous. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via TKO – R1

Erik Jackson: I don’t think I have read a prediction picking against “Shogun”, and for that reason I will be the first. I think Brandon Vera is going to shock a lot of people on Saturday night, mixing up his striking game with takedowns and securing a very lackluster victory; one that will not earn him a title shot that in all fairness I’m not sure he would even want given the beatdown he received against Jones in their last outing. Brandon Vera via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer: Violence, violence everywhere. I refuse to believe this is anything but a squash match. Vera has barely been a middle-of-the-pack LHW in recent fights; I would be shocked if he is able to deal with Shogun – even if it is a slower and past-his-prime version of Mauricio. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via TKO – R2

Doug Ancey: I know Vera is talented, and I know he is really fired up to fight Rua, but I just don’t see him presenting anything that Rua has not encountered before. Rua’s muy thai is way better than Vera’s, and I think he has way more power. I think once he connects on Vera, which he will, Vera will be put off his game plan. I see Rua bouncing Vera’s head off the mat like he did Forrest Griffen’s in their second fight. On top of this, Rua will most likely get a title shot if he wins. That being said, I don’t know if he’s all that anxious to face Henderson or Jones again. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via TKO – R2

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Lyoto Machida has two major things to worry about against Ryan Bader: the overhand right and the takedown. It seems simple, but when you combine Bader’s speed with those two aspects he becomes a very dangerous fighter. Luckily for Machida, he has outstanding takedown and striking defence, which equals bad news for Bader. This is a very important fight for both men, but I think the Brazilian will be able to control where the fight takes place and pick Bader apart en route to a unanimous decision victory. Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Jon Gerow: In my opinion, this is a pretty bad match up for Ryan Bader. His reliance on take-downs and power punching plays right into his opponents strengths. Lyoto Machida has proven time and time again he has some of the best takedown defense in the light heavyweight division and his striking is second to none. Look for Bader to set the pressure early in the fight until Machida catches him with a flury of punches and kicks. Lyoto Machida via TKO – R2

Erik Jackson: This is another very lopsided fight on paper and one that I believe will go in Machida’s favour. His quickness is going to be the key factor here as he will move in and out, taking very little damage along and way. Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Patrick Weafer: Machida has dealt with two tough losses recently and I am not sure how strongly he will rebound in this fight. However, I don’t think Bader has the wrestling to smother Machida for 3 rounds and there’s no way Lyoto gets caught with a winging overhand right. Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Doug Ancey: For Bader to win he needs to get in Machida’s face and try to take him down. His success in this fight will live and die by the takedown. Bader does have power, but Lyoto has built is career by staying on the outside and break dudes down with his striking. I don’t see Bader having an answer for what Machida will throw at him. Lyoto Machida via Unanimous Decision

Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner (Lightweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: Jamie Varner looked fabulous is his return to the organization last May while Joe Lauzon was knocked silly by Anthony Pettis last time he entered the octagon. In my opinion, it is in Varner’s best interest to take the fight into deep waters as Lauzon is known to fade in the later rounds. Both guys have a lot of submission wins on their records which could result in a stand-up battle. If the fight takes place on the feet, you have to give Varner the advantage, especially in the power department. Tough fight to call, but Varner has so much momentum behind him right now it’s going to be hard to deny him. Jamie Varner via TKO – R2

Jon Gerow: Coming in on short notice, Jamie Varner has a lot of momentum after knocking out highly-ranked prospect Edson Barboza in his last bout. Joe Lauzon is a gamer, but I’ll take Varner to continue his winning ways in exciting fashion. Jamie Varner via TKO – R2

Erik Jackson: This is the “Fight of the Night” in my mind, and one that Joe Lauzon should be able to win. Varner does not offer Lauzon very much stylistically and I think that Lauzon should be able to wear Varner out and eventually submit him in the second. Joe Lauzon via Submission – R2

Patrick Weafer: Varner looked supremely impressive in his late-notice showing against Edson Barboza, a fight that no one else wanted. Lauzon is a different fighter though, one that will blitz Varner in the first round in an all-or-nothing assault. Joe Lauzon via Submission – R1

Doug Ancey: This is going to be a barn burner of a fight. “J-Lau” has the skills to put a whoopin on people (poor Gabe Ruediger). However, I’m jumping on the Jamie Varner train for this one. I was so impressed with him in his win over Edson Barboza. I believe he will carry the same energy and confidence into his fight with Lauzon. He has the talent to be a champion. Jamie Varner via KO – R2

Mike Swick vs. DaMarques Johnson (Welterweight Bout)
Mike Bohn: It’s very difficult to tell how an over two-year layoff will effect Mike Swick. Swick is usually a fast starter, but the ring rust could be detrimental to that part of his game. On the flip side, DaMarques Johnson is also a fast starter, with three of his four UFC wins coming in the first round. I expect Johnson to come out hard and for the fight to be contested mostly on the feet. Both men carry a lot of power in their hands, but Swick should be the hungrier fighter after a long layoff and put Johnson away. Mike Swick via TKO – R2

Jon Gerow: Mike Swick is coming back from a two year lay off of injures and he’s stepping into the cage with a respectable fighter in DaMarques Johnson. Although, I don’t see Swick losing, I do expect this one to be competitive for all 15 minutes. Mike Swick via Unanimous Decision

Erik Jackson: A very interesting fight in the sense that it is hard to predict how it will play out. The majority should stay standing, which I believe Mike Swick will be able to outpoint Damarques before catching him in the second round and finishing it. Mike Swick via TKO – R2

Patrick Weafer: Really hoping Swick makes a strong recovery after an extended medical absence from the sport. He’s always been one of the more personable and likeable AKA fighters and lots will be riding on his comeback. He should possess the skills to handle Johnson in this one. Mike Swick via Unanimous Decision

Doug Ancey: DeMarques Johnson all the way. Mike Swick is coming off of a two-year absence from fighting that was riddled with injuries. “Quick” has lost a step over time and I think Johnson will be all over him. Johnson is coming off a loss and I think he’ll really be looking to make a statement. DeMarques Johnson via Submission – R2